Balancing the COVID-19 Economic Model amid the multitude of issues saturating our voyage thru uncharted waters
Are we acting like or ‘experiencing’ an economic environment more similarly performing like Unemployment jumped to 7, 8 or even 10%? Is Unemployment handicapped? Should it be?
Considering the federal stimulus funds already dispersed, in addition to the substantial dry powder, are we actually surprised at the way some markets are performing. A disproportionate amount of people are feeling disconnected in what we see, and what we do every day.
It was an opportunity for P360 to model a recession ‘Live’ as we waded thru February and March. Data was not yet available but with Mosaic’s live modeling, the new curves were immediately pushed out and we were able to get a jump on performance risk.
The modeling allows for instant updates which has provided a more distinct picture when adjusting for such inputs as GDP, Unemployment and Interest Rates.
Certain economic indices may recover in a more ‘V’ shape fashion while the economy on the whole will prove a different shape that is not even defined in the Latin alphabet. Expect Unemployment to decrease in dramatic form with some quick erratic swipes, however, prepare for a more lingering affect over the next many quarters. Maintaining a rate that is 2 or 3 times our recent norm is a highly likely scenario.